What are the implications of cold snaps and wild swings in temperature for the
veracity of climate change? Everyone who follows climate science knows
that the planet is warming,
but many are unaware of how temperature fluctuations may also be a part
of the climate change picture. Scientific observations provide an
overwhelmingly compelling body of evidence for global warming. Many
lines of scientific evidence show that as a consequence of global
warming, the Earth’s climate is changing, however, increasing global
mean temperature is only one element of observed climate change
phenomena.
Evidence of global warming can be seen in a number of scientific
observations including melting ice and sea level rises. Anomalies like
increased precipitation and extreme weather events support the data
generated by climate models. However, radical temperature fluctuations
are another dimension of climate change that is often overlooked.
Both Dallas and Colorado recently experienced some of the most
extreme temperature fluctuations on record. After enjoying balmy
temperatures, Dallas was hit with a powerful cold front that caused
temperatures to plummet below freezing. On Wednesday December 4, the
observed high was 80 degrees, on Saturday December 7, the temperature
plunged to just over 30 degrees. That is a temperature change of 50
degrees. Similarly, Denver went from being 67 degrees on Monday to 14
degrees on Wednesday. This represents a temperature difference of 53
degrees.
During the first week of December, 33 million Americans in 27 states
were hit by a cold spell. Deniers have commonly looked at cold weather
as evidence that disproves global warming. However, when examined over
much longer time spans we see a clear warming trend. Further, high and
low temperature data from recent decades show that new record highs occur nearly twice as often as new record lows.
Of course, individual temperature readings over the course of a few
days cannot be taken as evidence for or against climate change. However,
the anomalous temperature fluctuations are part of a trend that is
consistent with what many scientists predict will occur as the planet
warms.
As H.J. Weaver and his colleagues at the Australian National
University explained, “Climate change is predicted to alter the physical
environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme
fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on
human health and well being, food security and socioeconomic
infrastructure.”
A NOAA report (PDF) on the 2009/2010 Cold Season
stated that a changing climate produced “Extreme fluctuations in
temperature and precipitation in the mid-latitudes in 2009 and 2010.”
The winters of 2010 and 2011 in the northern hemisphere have resulted
in the record-setting freezes and warm spells. According to an analysis
of the past 63 winters from the American Geophysical Union, the warm
extremes were more widespread and severe than the cold extremes in the
winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. Natural variability may explain the
cold temperatures, but researchers concluded the extreme warmth cannot
be explained by natural cycles, suggesting a possible role of climate
change. The report’s co-author Alexander Gershunov and Scripps climate
researchers indicated that these temperature swings are consistent with global warming trends.
In Nowata Oklahoma, in the winter of 2011, the temperature went from
a low of -31 degrees on February 10 (the all-time coldest temperature
ever recorded in Oklahoma) to a record high of 79 degrees on February
17. According to the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Okla., this
110-degree temperature rise is the greatest change within seven days in
Oklahoma history.
A 2011 report out of the UK examined the possible infrastructure impacts of climate change and indicated that extreme temperature fluctuations are likely.
A July 2013 study on plant physiology and climate change talked about “expected extreme fluctuations in temperature and global warming in general.”
It is important to understand as we approach irreversible tipping points
that the impacts of climate change may at times appear to be
counterintuitive. Far from disproving global warming, radical
fluctuations in temperature are another dimension of the same problem.
Source: Global Warming is Real
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New Report on Extreme Weather in Australia
Extreme Weather and Global Weirding
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