Predictions for US Energy Efficiency in 2014: Growth and Obstacles

What can we expect from energy efficiency in the US in 2014? Insight into some of the major trends in energy efficiency for the year to come and beyond (this article is a followup to US Energy Efficiency in 2013: Success Stories and Barriers).

Efficiency will have an even greater impact on both residential and
industrial energy consumption this year compared to 2013. This is driven
by policy at the federal, state and municipal levels. Net-positive
energy buildings is another trend expected to grow in 2014. Other
specific initiatives that will define energy efficiency in 2014 relate
to financing, data usage, operational savings, and equipment
integration.

According to forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in 2014, U.S. residential energy use is expected to decline.
Even though energy is increasingly being used more efficiently by
industry, industrial electricity use is expected to expand along with
the economy. The EIA report indicates that improvements in appliance and
lighting energy efficiency will continue to slow the growth of
residential electricity consumption. The average household’s energy use is expected to decline 1.1 percent this
year and another 0.4 percent in 2015. However, the improving economic
picture will increase electricity use by the U.S. industrial sector,
which is forecast to consume 2.2 percent more electricity this year and
2.5 percent more in 2015.

A Rhodium Group and United Technologies report, entitled “Unlocking American Efficiency: The Economic and Commercial Power of Investing in Energy Efficient Buildings,”
indicates that the U.S. government and utility sponsored programs have
only a five percent penetration rate. An increase in energy efficiency
can be expected in 2014 as wider adoption of these programs positively
impacts the efficiency finance equation.

As reviewed in Energy Manager Today,
federal energy efficiency initiatives in 2014 include final equipment
standards for a variety of products such as electric motors, commercial
refrigeration equipment, and residential furnace fans. Together, the DOE
and HUD are expected to release housing initiatives that include new
energy standards for manufactured homes. New energy efficiency
requirements for federally-backed mortgages are also anticipated. This
may also include modifications to mortgage underwriting criteria, which
would factor a home’s energy efficiency. We may even see bipartisan energy efficiency legislation in 2014.

States like Oklahoma are expected to create new energy efficiency
policies and California is expected to launch equipment efficiency
standards, while both Maryland and New York will likely release energy
savings targets.

At the municipal level, cities are also pursuing additional energy
efficiency initiatives. An update to the Los Angeles building code is a
notable highlight. As of the beginning of 2014, all new or refurbished
buildings must be equipped with “cool roofs” (a cool roof is built of
reflective rather than absorptive material). Compared to traditional
roofs, these roofs can be as much as 50 degrees cooler on the roof
surface, and can lower interior building temperatures by several
degrees. Los Angeles is the first major American city to pass a
cool-roof ordinance.

Green builder Hammer & Hand predicts that the popularity of net-zero energy buildings will begin to be replaced by net-positive energy buildings
in 2014 and beyond. They attribute this trend to low cost solar panels,
more electric vehicles and market mechanisms that reward onsite energy
production. They also believe that we will see a policy shift in
building energy codes, which will move away from prescriptive codes
towards performance-based measures.

Hammer & Hand also forecast big things for CO2 heat pumps,
US-made high performance windows, and ventilation system quality in
2014. They anticipate that the U.S. led move to make Passive House (a
standard for energy efficiency in a building) more climate-specific will
improve performance at both micro and macro levels. Finally, building
energy efficiency initiatives in both Europe and China will help to
drive the U.S. market.

According to a Greentech Media
(GTM) interview with energy efficiency executives, in 2014 we can
expect to see the growth of PACE financing, better data usage,
operational savings, and new approaches to equipment integration. Here
are the details of their thoughts on the biggest energy efficiency
trends for 2014.

Clay Nesler of Johnson Controls sees growing momentum in commercial
property-assessed clean energy (PACE) financing. A total of 31 states
and the District of Columbia have passed legislation in support of
commercial PACE programs. Nesler also cited Johnson Controls’ 2013
global survey, which found that executives with energy efficiency goals
were 2.7 times more likely to increase energy efficiency investments in 2014 than organizations without such goals.

Mark Housely of Vigilent sees intelligent analytics as the salient
focus for energy efficiency in 2014. As Housely explained, “Sensors have
become both inexpensive and ubiquitous, efficiently providing great
data in significant volumes. When combined with intelligent analytics,
this data will provide unprecedented insight into data center energy use
and operating behavior, enabling entirely new and likely unexpected
ways of gaining efficiency and uptime safety.”

Bennett Fisher of Retroficiency shares Housely’s view and believes
large-scale analytics deployments in commercial buildings will be the
biggest energy efficiency trend of 2014. “In 2014, analytics will be
applied to entire cities and states to transform efficiency forever,”
Fisher said.

Swapnil Shah of FirstFuel says that with advances in education and
awareness, energy efficiency will move beyond retrofits and towards
operational savings. He points to low and no-cost operational savings
which represent half the savings of commercial buildings. “Their
adoption could spark a legion of energy-efficiency advocates in
commercial buildings across the U.S.” said Shah.

Chuck McKinney of Aircuity says that the next big trend in 2014 will
be “airside energy efficiency.” This trend will encompass several
different strategies including improved economizer utilization, natural
ventilation, and demand control ventilation. He points to the increasing
availability of utility incentive programs for ventilation
optimization. “[W]e expect demand control ventilation for airside
efficiency to become one of the next standard offerings that utilities
begin to drive as the next big category of energy efficiency measures,”
McKinney said.

Paul Baier of Groom Energy indicated that LEDs will be the major
trend of 2014. Two of the factors helping to drive widespread adoption
are lighting controls, and increased adoption of enterprise energy
management software.

The GTM article also asked energy efficiency executives what they
thought were the most serious hurdles for efficiency in 2014. Their
replies included ongoing financing barriers, education and
accountability, and data applications.

Many of the hurdles are the flip side of the forces that are driving
the growth of energy efficiency. A good illustration is Bennett Fisher
who on the one hand believes that “analytics will… transform efficiency
forever,” while at the same time he says that proper use of building
data for analytics purposes will be a hurdle for efficiency in 2014.

Clay Nesler said the lack of funding is the greatest barrier to the
growth of energy efficiency. Swapnil Shah concurs with Nesler and said
that private investment and financing are the most serious hurdles for
commercial efficiency. As Shah sees it, the fundamental challenge is the
absence of uniform, reliable, and universal building performance data
required to assess energy efficiency investments.

Paul Baier believes that inadequate energy accountability is a
problem for many organizations in 2014. Firms may understand the
importance of managing energy use, but there is a lack of clarity as to
who is responsible for improving energy efficiency.

Mark Housely believes that there is a problem with what he calls a
“legacy mindset” for data center operations. He believes the
wrong-minded thinking of “always on, all the time,” practice for
operation hampers energy efficiency. He indicates that data centers are
resistant to intelligently using monitoring sensors to “simultaneously
reduce energy use and gain time and insight for more strategic,
proactive planning.”

Energy efficiency programs will be expanded as will public awareness
of both the need and the opportunities. Policies that improve building
efficiency may also be improved including efficiency finance, portfolio
standards, regulatory reform, as well as building labels, codes and
standards.

Scaling the U.S. efficiency market in 2014 will be achieved through a
combination of policy, technology, data, analytics, education,
incentives and financing options.

Source: Global Warming is Real