We Need a Carbon Removal Portfolio Master Plan

We need a carbon removal portfolio (CRP)* to keep temperatures from breaching the limits contained in the Paris Agreement (2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial norms). Even if we were to stop emitting carbon into the atmosphere today we would still need to siphon carbon out of the atmosphere to keep global average temperatures from surpassing the upper threshold temperature limits. Given the scope of the required drawdown, we will need to deploy a full range of carbon removal strategies that include established technologies as well as innovative approaches. We must simultaneously explore new research directions.

An assessment of CRP technologies (NCS, DACCS, CCS, CCU), and companies leading carbon capture efforts suggests that these approaches are viable, scalable, and cost-effective. However, many of these technologies have not been field-tested and none have been deployed at anywhere near the required scale. We need to do a side-by-side comparison of various CRP approaches that incorporate energy and land usage alongside comparative assessments of viability, scalability, and cost. We need to examine the factors that contribute to and detract from the deployment of carbon technologies (see Table 1).

Governments have a pivotal role to play. This includes providing financial incentives such as carbon pricing and other regulatory frameworks. Government involvement is crucial because scaling these technologies will reduce their cost and facilitate deployment. Governments also have a role to play in disseminating the science that allows the wider public to appreciate the need for these technologies. With government support, businesses and investors will flock to CRP as a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.

Natural climate solutions (NCS) are an indispensable part of any serious CRP effort. Geological carbon sequestration may be the most cost-effective and enduring approach to storing carbon. Many NCS approaches can be characterized as winning carbon capture strategies, however, they are prone to carbon losses from events such as wildfires, drought, marine heat waves, and insect infestations. Direct air carbon capture and sequestration (DACCS) is also a critical part of a diversified carbon dioxide removal (CDR) portfolio. The portability and scalability of DACCS technologies are at the center of our hopes to keep temperatures from surpassing the upper threshold limits. Even if we stop emitting more carbon, we will still need to siphon it out of the ambient air to capture residual emissions from hard-to-abate industries. Without DACCS we will almost certainly surpass these limits. DACCS is not a panacea but it is all but inevitable that there will come a time when the world understands that we need to massively deploy this technology around the globe.

Keeping temperatures within acceptable limits will involve a patchwork of different technologies and approaches. We cannot afford to be distracted by economics that prioritizes profit over negative emission technologies. The deployment of carbon technologies does not replace the need for aggressive GHG mitigation efforts. We need both wide-ranging mitigation and the deployment of multiple different carbon technologies. We need to fit different CRP approaches into differing contexts to maximize the judicious use of local environments without compromising such things as essential agriculture.

We need to start developing overarching strategies and frameworks. Such technology portfolios will require situationally relevant publicly available data that includes NCS, DACCS, CCU, and CCS. To rapidly deploy a wide range of carbon technologies we need to develop a better understanding of their potential benefits and their respective environmental demands. Most importantly we will need to assess their interrelated effects, specifically how these technologies can be co-deployed for maximum effect without interfering with each other’s operational optimization.

Carbon capture research has benefited from the fossil fuel industry. While these partnerships have advanced our understanding of technological approaches to reducing source emissions, they should in no way be interpreted as a justification for the continued exploitation and burning of fossil fuels. There is no hope of keeping temperatures within the upper threshold limits without eradicating fossil fuel use.

The scope of the challenge is daunting and the window of opportunity to act is limited. So we must assess these technologies from the perspective of the speed of scalability to ensure that we do not overshoot the upper-temperature limits. We would also benefit from the development of standardized quantitative metrics that could help provide additional comparative clarity. CRP is the next frontier of climate action that could help us to avoid a catastrophe. However, if we are to have a chance of keeping temperatures within acceptable limits we need to act soon. More research will expedite the deployment of carbon technologies and make the deployment maximally efficient. Ensuring that the suite of carbon technologies can work together without further compromising biodiversity loss is a complex jigsaw puzzle that requires a master plan.

For references go to CRP Resources. See also Glossary of Terminology Related to CRP.

*CRP is being used here to refer to both approaches that remove CO2 from the ambient air and from the source where it is emitted.

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