EV Sales Predictions in the US

Analysts expect the sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) to significantly increase in the US over the next several years. The anticipated annual growth rate is expected to be 43 percent between 2011 and 2017. Annual sales will reach approximately 360,000 vehicles by 2017.

According to the report, “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts”, by 2017, 3.1 percent of global auto sales will be hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Demand will be strong in the US where these vehicles will account for 5.1 percent of total domestic vehicle sales in 2017.

Within the US, the PEV market is currently led by two key models, the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf. However, this may change as Ford is expecting to provide a wide array of models and recharging equipment.

The Pike report suggests that Ford will likely take the market lead by 2017 with 23.6% PEV market share. Toyota (with a plug-in version of its popular Prius) and General Motors will likely find themselves fighting for second with 21.1% and 20.7% market share, respectively.

Tesla can expect a market share for its startup is expected to grow to 4.6% by 2017 from 2.2% in 2011.

As the most populous states, California, New York and Florida will see the highest sales. However, when assessed as a percentage of total vehicle sales, smaller states will outperform larger ones. A 2011 report from Pike Research indicates that Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, D.C., and Delaware will all be among the top states for PEV penetration.

PEV sales of total light-duty vehicle sales in 2017 are expected to be 6.3 percent in Hawaii, 5.4 percent in California and Oregon, 4.6 percent in Washington, D.C. , and 4.5 percent in Delaware .

Part of the sales of PEVs are determined by availability. New York and California account for more than half of the available PEVs in the US, while Southern and rural states have limited PEV availability.

Pike Research’s “Index of Positive Opinion” toward PEVs indicate that consumers in each state have differing attitudes toward EVs. The research shows that in certain regions like Northern California people are very positively disposed towards EV whereas in places like North Dakota people have a very negative opinion of EVs.

To see Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts”, click here.